INDIANAPOLIS – The NFL is set up to push all 32 of its teams toward .500 – or eight or nine wins, as the case may be, until the league jams the long-anticipated 18th regular-season game onto the schedule.
But generally speaking, the deeper you go into the playoffs, the worse your draft position. The more you shell out for free agents one year, the less you’re able to spend the next. The more games you win in the regular season, the tougher your schedule is when the next one rolls around.
However, the savvy organizations find the cheat codes that separate them from the pack.
The Chiefs haven’t played in five of the past six Super Bowls because they’re lucky – or even because they have a quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, who might be regarded as the best of all time whenever he hangs up the cleats. Perhaps nearly as important is their stability and continuity, Andy Reid heading into his 13th season with the organization – all of that time spent with current GM Brett Veach, who’s worked for and with Reid in various capacities going back to the coach’s days in Philadelphia. Their rapport and shared philosophy explain why this franchise is typically several steps ahead of the competition, whether it’s drafting for anticipated needs, or moving on from seemingly indispensable players like former WR Tyreek Hill or All-Pro OL Joe Thuney, who was traded earlier this week.
“(W)e’re fortunate to have enough nucleus of good players that will be joining us and giving us an opportunity to have a productive ‘25 season and still compete,” Reid said at last week’s scouting combine.
As it pertains to roster construction, he added that it’s “all part of trying to bring the best people in that you can for your team. You can’t help but try to figure out how the pieces fit in the puzzle there, and we’ll work together and then inevitably, (they) can complement one another and win games for you.”
But while the Chiefs are again dealing with champagne problems, another club has a more foreboding K.C. issue. Among the Falcons’ myriad challenges is determining what to do with now-backup QB Kirk Cousins.
“We’re having all of those discussions,” GM Terry Fontenot said at the combine. “That’s the critical part right now. It starts with our roster. We’ll make sure we make the right decisions. Get in a good place with the cap. Then we have to make the right decisions in free agency.”
However, for teams like the Falcons and Chiefs, cheat codes notwithstanding, there seem to be far fewer decisions to make in 2025 due to their specific circumstances. Unlike the better-resourced teams poised to have highly impactful offseasons in 2025, these eight – ranked from most to least able to affect change – could struggle to make headway (salary cap projections courtesy of Over The Cap):
7. Kansas City Chiefs
Offloading Thuney, 32, cleared $16 million in cap room even if he didn’t fetch nearly the return (a fourth-rounder next year) that Hill did in 2022. Thuney’s departure goes a long way toward paying for the $23.4 million franchise tag recently applied to RG Trey Smith. However, the AFC champs are still $3 million overspent, don’t have a reliable left tackle, will likely lose LB Nick Bolton and S Justin Reid, among several others, to the open market and only have six draft picks – most coming at the end of each round – to partially reload the roster. They’d also like to lay the groundwork to extend defensive stalwarts George Karlaftis and Trent McDuffie with both a year away from what will be cap-stretching fifth-year rookie options.
“Every offseason, there seems to be a unique challenge, and this will be no different,” said Veach.
6. Miami Dolphins
At least they’re set at the offensive skill positions, assuming Hill has successfully completed his damage control after shutting himself down in the team’s Week 18 loss to the New York Jets last season? Regardless, not a ton of quality or depth elsewhere on this roster – both lines, in particular, areas of significant concern. S Jevon Holland headlines the Fins’ fleet of free agents. But with only $12 million in cap space and a cluster of Day 3 draft picks, it appears Miami will be forced into something of a youth movement, if not necessarily blue-chip youth.
5. Baltimore Ravens
Similar situation in Charm City, where the AFC North champions don’t have much in the free agency bank (about $10 million) but have a load of draft choices, if concentrated in the later rounds. But unlike the Dolphins, the Ravens may also have to switch kickers given the salacious allegations surrounding Justin Tucker. But he’ll likely be easier to replace than Pro Bowl LT Ronnie Stanley, who’s scheduled to reach free agency.
4. Houston Texans
And the theme continues in Space City, where the AFC South champions’ budget hovers around $14 million while the draft quiver holds just six selections. It adds up to a much less aggressive approach than last year … though kudos to GM Nick Caserio for obtaining WR Christian Kirk from the division rival Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday for a song, i.e. a 2026 seventh-rounder.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They’re pretty much capped out and only have six whacks at the draft board. But after a massive reinvestment in their own players last year – QB Baker Mayfield, LT Tristan Wirfs, WR Mike Evans and FS Antoine Winfield Jr. among them – that’s probably OK given it returned yet another NFC South crown. And if underrated GM Jason Licht can finagle a bit more room to keep WR Chris Godwin, so much the better.
2. New Orleans Saints
About one-sixth of their 2025 cap is tied up in three players who are long gone: CB Marshon Lattimore, WR Michael Thomas and QB Jameis Winston. And yet the Saints, who annually treat the cap like a kid who can’t pay down a high-interest credit card, still have $40 million they need to shed by Wednesday – which doubtless means more restructures like the one C Erik McCoy recently agreed to. Having the extra third-round pick obtained from Washington in last year’s Lattimore trade will help, but rookie HC Kellen Moore will likely be relying heavily on the draft for roster replenishment given the team’s cap constraints.
1. Atlanta Falcons
In the aftermath of a disappointing season, they still need to trim $5 million off the cap and own just four draft picks – their third-rounder belonging to New England and fifth-rounder forfeited for a tampering violation.
“You know, it is (a) tough market, because we are talking to a lot of players right now,” Fontenot said. “A lot of agents. Obviously, players on our roster.”
But it could get worse than trying to figure out how to re-sign 26-year-old C Drew Dalman.
Much worse.
Keeping Cousins means carrying the most expensive backup quarterback ever. Cutting him would incur a $65 million dead cap hit, including an additional $25 million accelerated onto this year’s bottom line (though Atlanta could spread that out with a post-June 1 designation). Given how the 36-year-old played in 2024, trading him seems like a non-starter unless – again – the Falcons are willing to eat a good chunk of Cousins’ contract.
“Yeah, we understand that it’s not ideal to have a quarterback at that cap number,” said Fontenot. “Now, when we gave him that contract, the expectation was for him to be the starter at this point. So, that is a good number for a starting quarterback. But now that he’s the backup, when we say we’re comfortable, we’re talking about the total funds allocated to the quarterback position. That’s already baked in.”
Unless second-year QB Michael Penix Jr. is superhuman in his first season as the full-time starter, seems more than likely that this team is already baked.
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